Mortgage Myth Busters: Robert D. Ashby, Turning Visions into Photographs (and Videos) (Visual Approach Aerial Photography (Visual Approach Photography))

Mortgage Market Weekly - Mortgage Rate Forecast - December 26, 2010

I apologize for not uploading this last week, but I am hopefully not going to miss another one.  Also, don’t forget my weekly Mortgage Market Weekly radio show, every Monday at 12:00 noon Eastern Time.  The bottom line for this week is that mortgage rates do not seem anxious to improve and continue to drift higher in pricing.  The overall outlook remains favorable for mortgage rates to continue their climb.

WEEK IN REVIEW

I hope you all had a wonderful Christmas and extended weekend.  Now it s time to get down to business, at least for a few more days as we are in another holiday-shortened trading week as we approach the 2011.

Last week saw a reasonable amount of volatility, but no real movement in MBS prices.  In fact, by the end of the week, MBS prices had drifted lower by 12bps overall as MBS prices rose a little, then fell back.  Economic data was scarce at the beginning, actually absent for Monday and Tuesday, then heated up on Wednesday and into Thursday.

MBS prices hugged their 10-day moving average as the week got started with the 3-month and 6-month Treasury auctions seeing slightly reduced demand.  St. Louis Fed President James Bullard also stated that the Fed's stimulus provision is reviewable and changeable.  Those recommending "floating" issued lock alerts as the day turned negative.  Tuesday saw MBS prices have arguably their most volatile day of the week as they started higher, fell, then closed at their highest levels of the day.  Again, floating guidance was changed to lock alerts amidst the volatility.  Fed market manipulation was the the reason for the afternoon rebound. 

Wednesday, data began rolling as we saw that Purchase Applications dropped 2.5% and Refinance Applications dropped 24.6%.  GDP was just below expectations, as was Existing Home Sales, though the latter was up 5.6%.  We saw MBS prices drop to their 10-day moving average yet again, though they ended Wednesday down just 3bp.  Thursday was the major data play as the week drew to a close and the bond markets closed early.  Jobless Claims were inline with expectations.  Durable Goods Orders were mixed and inflation according to the Fed's favorite gauge was tame yet again.  Consumer Sentiment was below expectations, but was still at 74.5, its highest level since June.  New Home Sales followed Existing Home Sales advice and rose 5.4%.  By Thursday's close, MBS prices had fallen on the day, ending the week down 12bp and roughly at their 10-day moving average.

FORECAST FOR THE WEEK

This week will be another shortened trading week as we close 2010 and begin 2011.  The week ahead will be interspersed with Treasury Auction and Economic Data, some of which is significant and may firm up the outlook for mortgage rates.  Again, with us currently amidst the holidays, trading could get volatile and the final outcome may not be "perfect" guidance for the future as we will not have the normal trading volumes. 

As of writing, this is what this week's schedule looks like:

  • Monday:  3-month T-Bill Auction, 6-month T-Bill Auction, 2-year T-Note Auction
  • Tuesday:  S&P Case-Shiller HPI, Consumer Confidence, 5-year T-Note Auction
  • Wednesday:  MBA Purchase Applications, Crude Inventories, 7-year T-Note Auction
  • Thursday:  Jobless Claims, Chicago PMI, Pending Home Sales Index
  • Friday:  HAPPY NEW YEAR

Just like last week, Thursday will be the day that should have the most impact.  Treasury auction results will also be a player this week, though their volumes will likely be down, causing decreased demand to be seen, which may weigh on MBS prices as well.

If you would like my in-depth technical analysis, make sure you listen to my Mortgage market Weekly radio show at Blog Talk Radio.  Don’t forget to subscribe to Mortgage Rate Forecaster by week’s end to beat my price increase and get access to my daily mortgage rate forecasts that have the most accurate track record for the past 6 years.  This is a MUST service if you do not want to lose more money following those other “well-known” mortgage rate alert services that continue to issue erroneous advice only to issue alerts later, sometimes less than 30 minutes later.

Comment balloon 2 commentsRobert D. Ashby • December 26 2010 04:19PM
Mortgage Market Weekly - Mortgage Rate Forecast - December 26, 2010
share
I apologize for not uploading this last week, but I am hopefully not going to miss another one. Also, don’t forget my weekly Mortgage Market Weekly radio show, every Monday at 12:00 noon Eastern Time. The bottom line for this week is that mortgage… more
Mortgage Market Weekly – Mortgage Rate Forecast – December 14, 2010
share
I just realized I never uploaded this week’s Mortgage Market Weekly, so here it is, with one addition if you are interested. For those looking for a quick summary, here it is…brief up, followed by the next leg down just like we have been seeing. … more
Mortgage Rate Forecast - Mortgage Market Weekly - December 5, 2010
share
What a week we had and it played out much like I had expected with MBS prices moving higher briefly, then resuming their downtrend and sending mortgage rates higher. It looks like much the same for this week, so you may as well just lock,… more
Mortgage Rate Forecast - Mortgage Market Weekly - November 29, 2010
share
It has been missing for quite some time as I transitioned Florida Mortgage Daily into Mortgage Rate Forecaster™, but the Mortgage Market Weekly is back, and is now going to be an email newsletter, so don’t forget to sign up for it on Mortgage Rate… more
Mortgage Rate Forecast - August 16, 2010
share
Greetings from Brasil as I am currently in Rio de Janeiro, certainly not a bad deal except for the fact it is somewhat difficult to conduct business from down here, especially with the internet being quite slow at times. Today’s radio show will be… more
Mortgage Rate Forecast - August 9, 2010
share
Good Monday morning to all and I trust you had a wonderful weekend. What a week we had last week and even with all of the data flowing, mortgage backed securities moved exactly as was predicted here, ending the week at new record highs, sending… more
Mortgage Rate Forecast - August 2, 2010
share
Last week was fairly boring, though it did get interesting towards the end. One thing that never seems to amaze me is the two-faced types out there, even among the “gurus”, when it comes to forecasting mortgage rates. I mean, look at how many.. more
Mortgage Rate Forecast - July 26, 2010
share
It’s that time of week again, where we take a quick look back at what happened last week in the mortgage backed securities market and what lies ahead. Last week’s report was omitted due to scheduling conflicts, which happens every now and then, but… more